Khi 'Nha Nuoc' Mua ETF: Bai Toan Tin Dung Tien Mat trong Blockchain Vi Nam
Bùi Thế
73 ty USD. Trong ba thang, dong von vao ETF co phieu o Trung Quoc vuot qua 73 ty USD. Con so nay gay soc, khong phai vi quy mo, ma vi toc do. Gan 60% dong tien nay do trong 5 ngay cuoi cung cua 7 thang.
Toi o Shenzhen, lang nghe tin giao dich. Mot hop dong thong minh phat hanh, mot ro rac chuyen tien. Toi doc xong bao cao cua Shanghai Securities News, roi tat may tinh. Khong phai vi toi khong quan tam, ma vi toi thay no qua quen thuoc.
Context: Khi 'Ping An' Bond Gap mo Mot Bo Mat
30 ty USD la more than enough de mua lai toan bo TVL cua toan bo he sinh thai Ethereum Layer 2 hien tai. Nhung o day, so tien nay duoc bom vao mot thi truong cu — thi truong chung khoan A-share cua Trung Quoc. ETF la cong cu. Va 'Nha nuoc' la nguoi mua.
Tin nay khong don thuan la tin tai chinh. No la mot tinh hieu ve mat tin dung. Khi chinh phu bom vo van tien de mua ETF, dieu do co nghia la: ho khong tin vao kha nang tu dieu chinh cua thi truong. Va ho can mot cai neo de giu gia.
Blockchain cung the. Khi mot giao thuc DeFi bat dau 'bom' LP de giu gia tri token, do la luc buffer thanh khoan cua no bi tan cong. Khong phai la tan cong cua hacker, ma la tan cong cua tin dung.
Toi da tung xay dung bot arbitrage tren Uniswap V2. Moi lan toi thay mot pool mat thanh khoan dot ngot, do la luc ma 'Nha nuoc' cua DeFi – cac quy market maker – vao cuoc. Ho khong lam dieu do vi ho tot bung. Ho lam dieu do vi ho so mat gia tri so sach.
Core: Mot Phan Tich Ma Logistic cua Dong Von 'Nha Nuoc'
Hay phan tich nhu mot hop dong thong minh. Dong von vao ETF o Trung Quoc co cau truc giong nhu mot Protoco-owned Liquidity. Nhung khong giong nhu olympusDAO hay su dao, no khong co vesting, khong co lock. Ho mua va nam giu. day la mot 'single-sided staking' khong co reward.
Toi da kiem tra so lieu. Tu 1/7 den 17/7, khoi luong giao dich cua 4 ETF lon nhat (Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300, China AMC SSE 50, E Fund SSE 50, China Southern CSI 500) tang gap 3-5 lan so voi thang 6. Nhung duong cong thanh khoan that lech. No giong mot ham so bac 2: day la dau hieu cua buy-side concentration risk.
Khi mot ben mua chiem >30% khoi luong giao dich, no tao ra mot 'price ceiling' gia tao. Lua chon cua ben mua khong thay doi. Ho phai giu gia. Neu ho ngung mua, gia giam ngay lap tuc. Do la vi sao trong blockchain, cac du an co vesting schedule. De tranh cung mot su phu thuoc.
Contrarian: Goc Nhin Nguoc Chieu — Day Khong Phai La Tin Hieu Tot Cho DeFi?
Nhieu nguoi se noi: 'Neu Nha nuoc mua ETF, thi thi truong se tang, va nguoi dung se co loi.' Sai. Trong blockchain, toi goi hien tuong nay la 'State-backed Liquidity Trap'. Giong nhu mot hop dong thong minh co owner la mot address duy nhat. Neu address do bi hack, ca he thong sup do.
Tren Uniswap, mot pool co concentration risk de bi sandwich attack. Trong truong hop nguoc lai, neu Nha nuoc la LP duy nhat, thi moi lenh giao dich nho cung co the gay ra price impact. No tao ra mot moi truong bat loi cho truong vi.
Toi da viet mot bai bao ve impermanent loss nam 2021. Noi dung: Khi mot ben mua gia nhan tao, impermanent loss se chuyen sang LP phi doanh. O day, LP la 'Nha nuoc'. Va LP cung la nguoi dan. Noi cach khac, thiet hai cuoi cung van do Nha nuoc ganh.
Takeaway: Cau Hoi Cho He Thong
Staking khong phai luc nao cung an toan. Nhat la khi nguoi staking la chinh phu. Khi mot thuc the don phuong gioi thieu thanh khoan, do la luc tin dung tien mat cua no bi de doa. Seo The Won khong the duy tri LP infinite. Va ETF cua Trung Quoc cung vay.
Bai toan dat ra: Ai se la LP tiep theo? Neu Nha nuoc la LP chinh, thi ai se la nguoi mua lai khi ho ban? Neu ho khong the ban, thi gia trinh thuc van co y nghia gi?
Tan huong cua bai nay khong phai la du bao gia tang. No la mot canh bao ve mat cau truc. He thong tai chinh trung uong dang tan du luan de gioi thieu thanh khoan cho thi truong. Nhung trong blockchain, chung toi da thay dieu do xay ra roi — va no thuong xuyen ket thuc bang mot cuoc so lanh.
Code khong loi chi la giac mo. Nhung co mot code trong hop dong thong minh cua 'Nha nuoc', a khong xuat hien tren Etherscan. No la mot ham goi la 'we will not sell'. Va trong monde cua chung toi, mot tai san khong the ban khong phai la mot tai san. No la mot cam ket. Va cam ket co the bi pha vo bat cu luc nao.